USDA Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
WHEAT: U.S. wheat supplies for 2013/14 are projected at 2,917 million bushels, down 7 percent from 2012/13.
Wheat production is projected at 2,057 million bushels, down 9 percent from last year with reduced prospects for Hard Red Winter wheat.
The all wheat yield, projected at 44.1 bushels per acre, is down 2.2 bushels from the record levels of 2012/13 and 2010/11. The survey-based forecast for winter wheat production is down 10 percent with the lowest harvested-to-planted ratio since 2006/07 and lower yields as persistent drought and April freezes reduce crop prospects in the southern and central Plains.
Global 2013/14 wheat supplies are projected 3 percent higher than in 2012/13 with a 51.2-million-ton increase in foreign production more than offsetting a 19.3-million-ton reduction in global beginning stocks and lower forecast production in the United States. At the projected 701.1 million tons, global production would be a record and up 45.5 million from 2012/13. Production for 2013/14 is projected higher in all of the world’s major exporting countries
Production is projected higher for Australia, Argentina, and Canada, up a collective 6.2 million tons from the current year. Also affecting global trade prospects in 2013/14 are year-to-year production increases for major importers, the Middle East and North Africa, where weather has been favorable for winter crops since seeding last fall.
Global wheat exports for 2013/14 are projected higher than in 2012/13 with increases expected for FSU-12, Argentina, and India more than offsetting reductions for EU-27 and Australia.
Global ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 186.4 million tons, up 6.2 million on the year.
COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain supplies for 2013/14 are projected at a record 400.5 million tons, up 25 percent from 2012/13 with higher area and yields expected for corn, sorghum, and oats. Corn production for 2013/14 is projected at 14.1 billion bushels, up 3.4 billion from 2012/13 when extreme drought and heat reduced yields to their lowest levels since 1995/96.
The 2013/14 corn yield is projected at 158.0 bushels per acre, 5.6 bushels below the weather adjusted trend presented at USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum in February (www.usda.gov/oce/forum/presentations/Westcott_Jewison.pdf).
The slow start to this year’s planting and the likelihood that progress by mid-May will remain well behind the 10-year average reduce prospects for yields.
Corn supplies for 2013/14 are projected at a record 14.9 billion bushels, up 3.0 billion from 2012/13.
U.S. corn use for 2013/14 is projected up 16 percent from 2012/13 on higher feed and residual disappearance, increased use for ethanol, sweeteners, and starch, and a partial recovery in exports.
U.S. corn ending stocks are projected at 2.0 billion bushels, up 1.2 billion from 2012/13. The season-average farm price at $4.30 to $5.10 per bushel is down sharply from the record $6.70 to $7.10 for 2012/13.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2013/14 are projected at a record 1,407.6 million tons, up 113.8 million from 2012/13. Global corn production for 2013/14 is projected at a record 965.9 million tons.
Global corn ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected up 29.2 million tons on the year. At 154.6 million tons, stocks would be a 13-year high.
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at 100.9 million tons, up 9 percent from
2012/13. Higher soybean production accounts for most of the increase. Sunflower seed, peanut, and cottonseed production are each projected below last year’s crops.
Soybean production is projected at a record 3.390 billion bushels, up 375 million from the drought-reduced 2012 crop on slightly higher harvested area and higher yields.
Soybean yields are projected at a weather-adjusted trend level of 44.5 bushels per acre, up 4.9 bushels from 2012.
Soybean supplies are projected at 3.530 billion bushels, up 10 percent from 2012/13. Additional soybean meal exports for 2012/13 are offset by reduced domestic consumption, leaving crush unchanged.
Soybean exports and ending stocks for 2012/13 are also unchanged from last month.
Global production of high-oil content seeds (rapeseed and sunflowerseed) is projected up 6.1 percent from 2012/13 on increased rapeseed production in Canada, India, EU-27, and Ukraine, and increased sunflower seed production in Argentina, EU-27, Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey. Oilseed supplies are up 5.1 percent from 2012/13.
Global soybean exports are projected at 107.1 million tons, up 11.3 percent from 2012/13. China soybean WASDE-518-4 imports are projected at 69 million tons, up 10 million from the revised 2012/13 projection, leaving soybean supplies up 5 million tons from the previous year.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Total U.S. red meat and poultry production in 2014 is projected to be above 2013 as higher pork and poultry production more than offsets declines in beef production. Tighter cattle supplies and potential heifer retention during late 2013 and into 2014 are expected to limit cattle available for placement, thereby reducing fed cattle slaughter in 2014. Lower cow numbers and herd rebuilding will also limit non-fed beef production. Pork production is forecast to increase more rapidly than in 2013 as lower forecast feed costs provide incentives for producers to expand farrowing’s and increase carcass weights from 2013 levels.
The total red meat and poultry production forecast for 2013 is lowered from last month as lower pork, broiler, and turkey production more than offsets greater beef production. Higher cattle placements are expected to support higher fed beef production and cow slaughter has remained relatively high. However, recent winter storms have affected cattle weights which are lowered slightly from last month.
Pork production is down marginally on lower forecast slaughter in the second of half of 2013
Continued year-over-year declines in U.S. beef production are expected to push beef exports lower in 2014.
Pork exports are expected to rebound in 2014 as supplies increase and demand improves.
Beef imports are expected to be higher in 2014 as U.S. cow slaughter declines and domestic non-fed beef supplies tighten.
Pork imports are forecast up fractionally from 2013.
The 2013 red meat export forecast is lowered from last month, largely due to lower expected pork exports. The beef forecast is adjusted to reflect lower first-quarter exports.
For 2014, cattle prices are forecast to rise above 2013 as supplies continue to tighten. Hog prices are forecast to be slightly lower than 2013 on higher production.
Cattle price forecasts for 2013 are unchanged from last month. Hog prices are down fractionally from last month on weaker second quarter prices. Broiler prices are forecast higher as prices remain strong.
Commercial exports are forecast higher on robust international demand. Imports will be lower on greater domestic supplies.