The U.S. Department of Agriculture has released the monthly World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates.
U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected higher this month on reduced export prospects. Projected exports are lowered 25 million bushels with increased world supplies of high quality wheat, particularly in Australia, and a slower-than-expected pace of U.S. shipments heading into the final quarter of the wheat marketing year. By-class changes include lower projected exports for Hard Red Spring, White, and durum wheat, partly offset by small increases for Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter wheat. The marketing-year average price received by producers is projected at $5.60 to $5.80 per bushel, unchanged from last month.
Global 2010/11 wheat supplies are projected 1.9 million tons higher reflecting higher production.
Global wheat trade is projected lower partly reflecting reduced import prospects for a number of smaller markets as high prices trim demand. Despite last year’s drought, Russia appears to be meeting its wheat needs as the government’s export ban helps maintain supplies for domestic users.
Global 2010/11 wheat consumption is projected lower with the biggest change being a 1.5-million-ton reduction in expected wheat feeding for Russia. World ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected 4.1 million tons higher.
The U.S. feed grain balance sheet for 2010/11 is nearly unchanged this month. Barley exports are lowered 2 million bushels reflecting the slow pace of shipments and sales to date. The projected marketing-year average farm price for corn is narrowed 10 cents on both ends of the range to $5.15 to $5.65 per bushel. Farm price projections for sorghum and barley are lowered slightly and the oats farm price projection is raised slightly, all reflecting reported prices to date.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2010/11 are projected 2.5 million tons lower this month. Global corn beginning stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons.
Global 2010/11 corn production is reduced 0.5 million tons as lower production in Mexico and India is partially offset by higher production in Brazil. Brazil corn production for 2010/11 is raised 2.0 million tons reflecting higher reported area and yields in the summer crop and expectations for increased area for the winter crop with government planting dates extended for crop insurance and loan programs. Mexico corn production is reduced 2.0 million tons as the unusual early February freeze destroyed standing corn crops across much of the northwest winter corn region, which normally accounts for about one-fourth of the country’s total corn production.
Global 2010/11 sorghum and barley production are each lowered 0.5 million tons and oats production is lowered 0.3 million tons.
Global 2010/11 coarse grain imports are raised this month as increases for corn and sorghum more than offset a reduction for barley. Corn imports are raised 1.1 million tons for Mexico with the lower production outlook. Sorghum imports are raised for EU-27 and barley imports are lowered for Russia, Saudi Arabia, and China. Increased corn feeding in EU-27 is more than offset by reductions in feeding in Russia and lower food, seed, and industrial use in India and Mexico. Projected global corn ending stocks are raised slightly.
No changes are made on the supply side of the U.S. 2010/11 rice supply and use balance sheet. Domestic and residual use and total exports are unchanged from a month ago; however, the rough rice export forecast is lowered 1.0 million cwt, which is offset by an increase in the combined milled and brown export forecast. Long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain rice exports are forecast to be unchanged from the previous month. All rice ending stocks are projected at 52.8 million cwt, unchanged from last month. Long-grain rice stocks and combined medium- and short-grain rice stocks are both unchanged from a month ago. The 2010/11 average milling rate is revised to 67.75 percent, up 0.25 points from last month.
The 2010/11 long-grain season-average price is projected at $11.05 to $11.55 per cwt, up 30 cents on each end of the range from last month. The combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $16.25 to $16.75 per cwt, down 50 cents on each end of the range. The all rice season-average price is forecast at $12.25 to $12.75 per cwt, up 10 cents on both ends of the range.
Global 2010/11 projections of rice production, consumption, and exports are lowered from a month ago, and ending stocks are raised. Global production is still a record at 451.5 million tons.
Global consumption is lowered 5.3 million tons to 447.0 million, still a record, primarily due to reductions in India and China. Conversely, global ending stocks are raised 4.9 million tons to 98.8 million.
U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2010/11 are mostly unchanged from last month. A higher soybean meal extraction rate is offset by a small increase in soybean meal exports, leaving the projected soybean crush unchanged. Soybean oil production is increased due to a higher soybean oil extraction rate. Soybean oil used for biodiesel for 2010/11 is projected at 2.7 billion pounds, down 200 million from last month due to lower-than-expected production through January. Soybean oil exports are increased 200 million pounds reflecting continued strong export shipments and sales. Soybean oil stocks are projected at 2.4 billion pounds, down 165 million from last month.
The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2010/11 is projected at $11.10 to $12.10 per bushel, down 10 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 51.5 to 55.5 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents on both ends. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $340 to $370 per short ton, down 10 dollars on the high end.
Global oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at 444.2 million tons, up 2.4 million tons from last month. Foreign production, projected at 343.7 million tons, accounts for all of the change. Global sunflower seed production is raised 0.3 million tons and global cottonseed production is reduced with lower production.
Global oilseed supplies, crush, and ending stocks are projected higher this month. Higher soybean stocks for Brazil and Argentina are only partly offset by reductions for China, Canada, and India. Higher rapeseed stocks are projected for EU-27, Australia, and Turkey. Global protein meal production, consumption, and stocks are all projected higher this month.
For Mexico, 2010/11 sugar production is decreased 100,000 metric tons, raw value, based on indications that recent freeze damage reduced production potential. Exports are decreased 100,000 tons.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:
The forecast for 2011 red meat and poultry production is raised from last month, reflecting increased production of beef, pork, broilers, and turkeys. Fed cattle slaughter will reflect expected strength in feedlot placements during early 2011 and relatively large dairy cow slaughter in the first part of 2011 will also contribute to higher beef production. However, the effects of increased cattle slaughter will be partly mitigated by lower expected carcass weights. Pork production is increased from last month as carcass weights thus far in the first quarter are well above last year. Broiler and turkey production is forecast higher in the first half of 2011. The increase largely reflects relatively heavy bird weights but the increase in turkey production forecast reflects higher increases in poult placements as well as increased bird weights. The egg production forecast is raised as the table egg type laying flock has been increasing.
The forecast for beef exports for 2011 is raised from last month on strength in exports to Asia. The beef import forecast is reduced as supplies in several exporting countries are expected to remain tight and a relatively weak U.S. dollar is expected to constrain shipments. The pork and poultry export forecasts for 2011 are unchanged from last month. Despite the higher production forecasts, prices for livestock and poultry are raised from last month. Robust exports and improving domestic demand in the face of relatively tight meat supplies are expected to support higher price forecasts for cattle, hogs, broilers, and turkeys. Egg prices in the first quarter are forecast lower due to recent price declines.
The milk production forecast for 2011 is reduced from last month. Relatively high milk prices and increased supplies of replacement heifers are expected to encourage further increases in the cow herd through much of the year, but the rate of increase in milk per cow is forecast slower than last month. Exports are forecast higher as global nonfat dry milk and cheese demand remains strong with tight supplies in competitor markets expected through the first half of 2011. Estimates of 2010 milk production are adjusted to reflect data revisions.
Dairy product prices are forecast higher this month on strong early year prices. Strong international demand and improving domestic demand will support prices for most products. Currently tight butter stocks are also helping support butter prices. Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised to reflect higher product prices. The all milk price is forecast to average $18.10 to $18.70 per cwt for 2011.
The U.S. 2010/11 cotton supply and demand estimates are unchanged from last month. The forecast range of 80 to 83 cents per pound for the average price received by producers is narrowed 1 cent on each end.
The world 2010/11 supply and demand estimates include marginally lower production and ending stocks relative to last month. World production is reduced 300,000 bales. World consumption is virtually unchanged. World trade is raised slightly, as lower production in China is expected to increase import demand.