MISSOURI: (USDA) This is just a partial listing of the World Agriculture Supply and Demands Estimates. For the full report you can go to the USDA website.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2019/20 U.S. corn outlook is for greater beginning
stocks, slightly higher production, reduced food, seed, and industrial use (FSI), larger
feed and residual use, lower exports, and smaller ending stocks. Beginning stocks are
raised 107 million bushels reflecting upward revisions to both on-farm and off-farm stocks
as of September 1 as reported in Grain Stocks. Corn production is estimated at 13.692
billion bushels, up 31 million as a higher yield more than offsets a reduction in harvested
Total corn use is up 155 million bushels to 14.070 billion. Exports are reduced 75 million
bushels to 1.775 billion, reflecting the slow pace of shipments through December, and the
lowest level of outstanding sales as of early January since the 2012/13 marketing year.
FSI use is lowered 20 million bushels, with lower projected corn used for starch, glucose
and dextrose, and high fructose corn syrup. Feed and residual use is raised 250 million
bushels to 5.525 billion, based on indicated disappearance during the SeptemberNovember quarter and the 2018/19 marketing year as reflected by the Grain Stocks
report. With use rising more than supply, 2019/20 corn stocks are reduced 18 million
bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $3.85
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2019 total red meat and poultry production
estimate is reduced from last month as lower pork and turkey production more than offset
higher beef production. The beef production estimate is raised on the pace of late-year
slaughter. The pork production estimate is reduced on the slower pace of slaughter in
late 2019. The broiler production estimate is unchanged from the previous month, but
the turkey production estimate is lowered or recent production data. The egg production
estimate is raised on late-2019 production data.
For 2020, the total red meat and poultry production forecast is increased fractionally from
last month as higher broiler production more than offsets lower expected beef, pork, and
turkey production. The 2020 beef production forecast is reduced on lighter expected
carcass weights. However, quarterly beef production was increased in the first half of the
WASDE-596-4 year and reduced in the second half of the year due to higher-than-expected cattle
placements in late 2019 and a reduced placement forecast for early 2020. USDA will
release its semi-annual Cattle report on January 31, providing estimates of heifers held
for breeding and an insight into the number of feeder cattle available for placement during
The pork production forecast for 2020 is reduced from the previous month.
USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report estimated the 2019 September-November pig
crop 2 percent higher than the prior year which supports a higher first-half 2020 slaughter
and production forecast. The report also indicated producers intend to expand farrowings
about 1 percent in the first half of 2020, which coupled with adjustments to the rate of
growth in pigs per litter, results in reduced hog slaughter forecast for the second half of
2020. Forecast broiler production is raised for 2020 on recent hatchery data which points
to continued expansion of laying flocks. The turkey production forecast is reduced, while
the egg production forecast is raised on gains in the laying flock.
The beef import forecast is increased for 2019 on recent trade data. No change is made
to the 2020 import forecast. The 2019 beef export forecast is reduced to reflect a slower
export pace late in the year, but no change is made to the 2020 beef export forecast.
The pork export forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged from the previous month.
The 2019 broiler export forecast is raised on recent trade data, but no change is made to
the 2020 export forecast.
Livestock and poultry price estimates for 2019 are adjusted to reflect December price
data. For 2020, the first-quarter cattle price is raised, reflecting current early-year price
strength. First-half hog price forecasts are reduced on current prices and increased
production. Broiler prices are lowered as higher forecast production weighs on markets.
Turkey price forecasts for 2020 are raised on lower production and continued demand
recovery. Egg price forecasts are lowered on recent price weakness and increased
Milk production forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are lowered from December on slower
expected growth in milk per cow. The 2019 fat basis import forecast is unchanged from
last month, but the 2020 import forecast is reduced on lower expected cheese and
butterfat imports. The fat basis export forecast for 2019 and 2020 is raised on recent
trade data and strong sales of cheese and other dairy-containing products. On a skimsolids basis, the 2019 and 2020 import forecasts are unchanged. Skim-solids basis
export forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are raised on strong global demand for nonfat dry
Dairy product price estimates for 2019 include December price data. For 2020, cheese,
butter, and whey price forecasts are reduced on demand weakness and relatively high
stocks. The NDM price forecast is raised from December on continued strength in
demand from export markets. The Class III price and Class IV price are lowered from the
previous month. The 2019 all milk estimate is unchanged at $18.60, but the 2020 all milk
price forecast is reduced to $19.25 per cwt.